September 3rd, 2026 9:14 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Bond Markets improving this morning on comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller that he would support keeping rates steady at the FOMC meeting on the 16th. Yesterday NY Fed President John Williams noted the economic outlook is strong and, “I think that we have to wait and see." Two Fed officials wanting to keep rates where they are at the coming meeting. The reaction this morning pushing the 10 year note down 4 bps and 2 bps lower yesterday.
Weekly jobless claims this morning were about as expected at 206K, estimates 205K. Weekly claims are holding well, not improving but equally not declining confirming the labor market remains resilient. Continuing claims, a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the US, rose by 8,000 to 1,779,000 two weeks ago. Although continuing claims increased it still points to what some Fed officials see as full employment.
Q2 productivity +1.4% the same as the preliminary release last month and up from +0.8% in Q1. Output increased 1.7% and hours worked increased 0.3%, both in line with the initial estimates. Unit labor costs at 1.2% down from 1.3% on the preliminary report. Hourly compensation rose 2.6%, accelerating from a 2.1% increase in Q1.
The data this morning and comments from Fed officials confirm the economy is doing well, and inflation at least isn’t increasing. Yesterday the CME FedWatch Tool was at 66% for a rate hike at the September meeting, today the forecast is less.
Iran apparently launched missiles into Kuwait, but no damage.
The dollar is weakening this morning on new belief the Fed will not increase the FF rate in two weeks at the FOMC meeting, sending gold prices higher.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.75% -3 bp
5 year note: 4.50% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.33% -5 bp
30 year bond: 5.23% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.15 +18 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.03 +24 bp (+33 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.34 +17 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.66 -3.05 yen (huge decline)
Dollar/Euro: $1.1621 +$0.0027
Dollar Index: 99.03 -0.55
Gold: $4,517.90 +$103.40
Bitcoin: 78,892 +1584
Crude Oil: $91.92 +$0.91
DJIA: 53,455 +394
NASDAQ: 26,391 +174
S&P 500: 7700 +34
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.