June 26th, 2026 12:11 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Little to no change in the bond market overnight. The MBS market holding quite well yesterday and early this morning.
At 8:30 am the advance look at the May US trade deficit, expected at -$85.2B, reported at -$105.8B. Month/month imports +3.6% from +2.0% in April, to $313.4B, the highest in 14 months despite the tariffs. Month/month exports -5.4% from +3.8% in April, the third highest on record, to general inflation of domestically produced industries. Sales fell for industrial supplies (-7% to $82.7 billion) and consumer goods (-9.2% to $20.7%). It isn’t a market mover for the bond market.
Yesterday crude oil prices increased for the first time in a week. This morning oil retreated.
A few weeks ago, both Open AI and Anthropic were preparing IPOs this fall, Open AI saying now it will delay until next year.
The main data today, the final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 50.0 from 48.9 mid-month. The index reported at 49.5 from 44.8 in May; current conditions 47.7 from 45.8, expectations 50.7 from 44.1.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.39% -1 bp
5 year note: 4.14% -3 bp
2 year note: 4.10% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.88% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.57 +3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.18 -6 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.63 +1 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 161.64 -0.17 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1419 +$0.0049
Dollar Index: 101.11 -0.33
Gold: $4,065.30 +$17.70
Bitcoin: 59,388 +187
Crude Oil: $69.67 -$2.25
DJIA: 51,794 -136
NASDAQ: 25,201 -157
S&P 500: 7333 -25
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.