December 4th, 2025 9:03 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Weekly jobless claims this morning were better than forecasted. Claims last week were 191K, down 27K from the prior week, a fourth consecutive drop and the lowest weekly level since 2022. Continuing claims fell 4,000 to 1.939 million reported for two weeks ago. The results were loosely aligned with other labor market data in showing that firings are slowing, while a sharp reduction in hiring activity maintained outstanding unemployment insurance levels. Yesterday ADP reported November private jobs lost 32K jobs against estimates of +20K. The Fed and markets believing employment is slowing continue to contend with conflicting data and delayed data from the shutdown.
The job placement firm, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, also released jobs data this morning. In November business firms planned 71,321 layoffs totaling 2025 lay-offs to 1.17 million. “Layoff plans fell last month, certainly a positive sign. That said, job cuts in November have risen above 70,000 only twice since 2008: in 2022 and in 2008,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Tech companies, driven by innovations in AI, listed 12,377 reductions, pushing the sector’s 2025 total up 17% from a year ago. AI itself has been cited for 54,694 layoffs this year.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +99, NASDAQ +44, S&P +14. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.09% +2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from yesterday’s close and -3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The Treasury yield curve continues to steepen, an indication the long end of the curve is not performing as well as at the short end, 2 year notes. The spread between 2 year notes and the 10 year notes is +0.57% (10s over 2s), a year ago +0.04 (10s over 2s). The implication, long term rates are not declining.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.09% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.66% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.52% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.75% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.23 -6 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.42 -1 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.94 -8 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 154.82 -0.43 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1666 -$0.0005
Dollar Index: 98.83 -0.03
Gold: $4,227.10 -$5.40
Bitcoin: 92,638 -345
Crude Oil: $58.91 -$0.04
DJIA: 47,850 -32
NASDAQ: 23,414 -40
S&P 500: 6846 -4
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.