CHM Blog

A trickle instead of a tsunami of Boomer homesellers

That old saying about the best-laid plans was never more apropos. The real estate industry has been banking on baby boomers selling off their homes for years now, expecting a massive wave of inventory to hit the market. But according to new research from data analytics firm Cotality, that tsunami might turn out to be more of a trickle than a flood.

Realtor.com’s Allaire Conte’s report reveals that boomers are sitting on nearly $19 trillion in housing wealth—almost half the nation's total. And while a record 340,000 homes changed hands through inheritance in the 12-month period ending in August 2025, representing 7.4% of all transactions, that's barely a drop in the bucket when you consider there are roughly 30,000,000 homes owned by householders aged 65 or older, according to Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

Economist Matt Delventhal explains that the industry assumed seniors would downsize at similar ages and rates as previous generations. Clearly, that's not happening. Instead, older homeowners are aging in place longer than ever before, creating only a small stream of property transfers between generations.

California offers the most dramatic example. Inheritance transfers accounted for 18% of all home transactions in the state—triple the national share. Delventhal points to Proposition 13, the state's property tax cap, as a major factor. The law allows longtime owners to maintain low tax bills and pass those protections to direct heirs like children or grandchildren. With home values soaring, that benefit can mean tens of thousands of dollars per year in savings, giving families a powerful incentive to keep properties locked within the bloodline rather than listing them.

For younger households, this creates a paradox many therapists might argue creates a generation of adult children that “fail to launch.” In 2023, 18% of adults ages 25 to 34 were living in a parent's home, according to Pew Research, with the share reaching as high as 33% in some California metros. Most said the arrangement helped their finances. Inheritance might become an important pathway to homeownership for some, but it won't provide the broad inventory relief buyers desperately need.

Real estate agent Ryann Brier from City Lights Home Buyers in Michigan sees the complications firsthand. Heirs often inherit properties that don't fit their needs but feel obligated to keep them, turning the asset into a second job with utilities, maintenance, insurance, and upkeep they didn't budget for. Some become reluctant landlords. Others face legal tangles that delay sales for years.

The bottom line? Those 30,000,000 homes will change owners eventually, but don't expect them to flood the market anytime soon.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market improved by +2 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Central Banks, 2) Geopolitical, 3) Domestic News.

1) Central Banks: We will get the Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday, followed by a live presser with Fed Chair Powell. The bond market is not expecting a cut. Regardless of a cut or not, the bond market is most sensitive to their balance sheet and any changes in their runoff schedule or even to start purchases again could really have a big impact on pricing. We will also get a key interest rate decision out of the Bank of Canada.

2) Geopolitical: We will have a big speech from the President this week and we are still waiting for an announcement out of the Supreme Court on tariffs. We are also fast approaching the deadline for another government shutdown.

3) Domestic news: The key reports this week are Chicago PMI, PPI and Consumer Confidence.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing a small boost. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels and could easily become high later in the week on any of our major items.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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