CHM Blog

This is FOMC week, the meeting begins Tuesday with the policy statement and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. There isn’t going to be a change in the key rate at this meeting, markets looking for clues about possible rate cuts later this year. Inflation remains elevated although not increasing much, unemployment holding steady, the two concerns at the Fed.

Still getting old data; November durable goods orders this morning, new orders expected +3.7% increased 5.3%, ex-transportation orders thought to be +0.3% increased 0.5%, core capital goods orders increased 0.7% from +0.3% in October. At 1 pm ET this afternoon Treasury will auction $69B of 2 year notes.

Tomorrow ADP will report its weekly employment change, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (90.9 from 89.1), November Case/Shiller home price index (year/year 1.3%, month/month -0.3%), $70B 5 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, 2 pm FOMC and Powell.

Thursday weekly jobless claims (205K from 200K), Q3 productivity and unit labor costs (productivity 4.9%, unit labor costs +1.9% both unchanged from the prelim release), November US trade deficit (-$45B from -$29.4B in October), $44B 7 year note auction. Friday December PPI (month/month +0.2%, core month/month +0.3%, year/year core +2.9% from +.30%), January Chicago purchasing managers index (43.8 from 43.5 in December).

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +59, NASDAQ -15, S&P +8. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.21%. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from Friday’s close and +6 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

At 1 pm $69B 2 year note auction.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.22% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.83% unch

2 year note: 3.61% unch

30 year bond: 4.80% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.95 +8 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.36 +5 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.89 +8 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 153.74 -0.74 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1873 unch

Dollar Index: 97.06 -0.54

Gold: $5,084.60 +$104.90

Bitcoin: 88,065 +1510

Crude Oil: $60.81 -$0.26

DJIA: 49,271 +172

NASDAQ: 23,614 +113

S&P 500: 6950 +34

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.