CHM Blog

Aging out of the driver's seat

Remember when turning 16 meant only one thing? Getting your driver's license? That rite of passage is quietly disappearing, and it's reshaping not just how Americans get around, but where they can afford to live.

Realtor.com's Allaire Conte dug into the numbers and found they tell a surprising story. Since 2019, vehicle miles traveled per capita have dropped 2.3%, according to the Federal Highway Administration, with young adults driving the shift. Between 2001 and 2017, their vehicle travel plummeted 19%, nearly twice the decline of older drivers. Things got really interesting from 2017 to 2022, when daily trips among young adults fell almost 50%, based on UCLA research. According to the Department of Transportation, today 1 in 25 licensed drivers is 19 or younger — a significant drop from a decade ago.

Think online shopping, remote work, and streaming services. People just leave home less— period. Where it gets interesting is that while public transit ridership dropped 23% since 2019, it's bouncing back stronger than driving ever did. The Federal Transit Administration found ridership surging more than 17% from 2022 to 2023 alone.

It’s a housing crisis within a crisis. Fewer people driving means more demand for transit-oriented neighborhoods. Yet over the past two decades, nearly 9 times as many housing units were built far from transit stations as near them, the Urban Institute reports. Between 2000 and 2019, urban areas with transit only added 2 million units. Without transit? 17.6 million.

That scarcity shows up in prices. Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, points out that walkable neighborhoods with transit access have always been valuable because they're so rare. In Phoenix, homes near the light-rail line jumped 194% and 208% from 2019 to 2025 compared to 159% citywide. Austin is in sync where neighborhoods near UT Austin saw prices climb 168%. Even better, they bucked the recent downturn entirely. From 2022 to 2025, while Austin's median home price fell 10%, these neighborhoods grew 26%.

Car ownership now costs more than $12,000 a year, up from around $8,000 a decade ago, the AAA reports. Living near transit is now a matter of financial survival. Throw aging into the mix, and you’ll find nearly 58% of older adults living in neighborhoods without public transit, according to research in the Journal of Transport & Health. As more Americans age in place and eventually stop driving, it will continue to be a conundrum.

Simply put, you can't have real affordability without good transportation options. As cities expand transit, they're finally passing zoning changes to build housing alongside it. Better late than never.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -33 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) Central Banks.

1) Geopolitical: There is a lot going on this week starting with the WEF in Davos where the United States will present/speak tomorrow. We have Greenland, Iran, Venezuela, et all to focus on as well as our Supreme Court ruling on Tariffs.

2) Inflation: We get the Fed's Official measure of inflation, Core PCE on Thursday.

3) Central Banks: We will get key interest rate decisions out of China and Japan with the focus on Japan.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 20 Year Treasury Bond auction on Wednesday.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing some pressure. Volatility has started high and will likely stay that way all week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.