CHM Blog

If there was a lingering idea the Fed would lower rates the FOMC policy statement, Powell’s comments, and the Fed’s projections should make it clear no cuts are coming until later this year, if at all. The Fed is saying a potential of two cuts between now and the end of 2027. The Fed as well as all markets uncertain about the Iranian conflict, how long it will last and what the end game is.

Weekly jobless claims this morning were expected at 215K from 213K declined to 205K -8K from the prior week. Continuing jobless claims, which serve as proxy for outstanding unemployment, rose only slightly to 1,857 million in the previous week, up 10K.

Building permits fell 4.7% month-on-month in January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.386 million, the lowest since last August, though the decline was less severe than the initial 5.4% estimate. Multi-unit permits plunged 12.4% to 458,000, while single-family permits edged down 0.6% to 876,000. Regionally, permits fell sharply in the West (-13.8% to 312,000), Northeast (-8.4% to 153,000), and South (-2.9% to 695,000) but rose 7.6% in the Midwest to 226,000.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 18.1 in March, the highest since last September, from 16.3 in February and way better than analysts' forecasts of 10. This marked the third consecutive month in positive territory, indicating continued expansion in regional manufacturing.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.28% +2 bp

5 year note: 3.92% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.85% +7 bp

30 year bond: 4.86% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 98.78 -17 bp (-46 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.51 -17 bp (-35 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.07 -19 bp (-33 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 158.53 -1.35 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1488 +$0.0036

Dollar Index: 100.00 -0.09

Gold: $4,566.70 -$329.60

Bitcoin: 69,719 -1340

Crude Oil: $97.55 +$1.23

DJIA: 46,040 -185

NASDAQ: 22,025 -128

S&P 500: 6596 -28

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.