July 1st, 2026 8:40 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning at 8 am ET the 10 year note at 4.49% +5 bps, MBS prices started down 20 bps. Monday the note at a seven-week low at 4.36%, quite an increase in 48 hours.
At 8:15 am ADP reported June private jobs, expected to be +117K jobs, increased 98K. Employment remains a mixed bag, but still holding well with the unemployment rate released tomorrow. It is expected unchanged from May at 4.3% where it has been for three months.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported job cuts through June at 443K down 10% from 744K in the first half of 2025. In June 45,849 job cuts, down 53% from the 97,006 cuts announced in May. June’s total is down 4% from the 47,999 cuts announced in the same month last year and marks the lowest monthly total since December 2025. Yesterday JOLTS job openings increased by 9,000 to 7.594 million in May 2026, the highest since May 2024 and well above market expectations of 7.30 million, highlighting labor market resilience despite rising energy costs from the Iran conflict.
Fed chair Warsh in Europe at an ECB forum on Central Banking. So far, he didn’t provide any remarks about what the FOMC will do at its meeting later this month.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week were unchanged from the previous week in the last full week of June, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Contracts to refinance a mortgage -0.6%, applications for a mortgage to buy a home were 0.5% higher.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.48% +1 bp
5 year note: 4.22% -1 bp
2 year note: 4.16% -3 bp
30 year bond: 4.97% unch
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.17 -15 bp (-37 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.02 -20 bp (-24 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.33 -16 bp (-29 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 162.44 -0.14 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1399 -$0.0024
Dollar Index: 101.23 +0.05
Gold: $4,117.00 +$78.50
Bitcoin: 59,283 +573
Crude Oil: $69.02 -$0.48
DJIA: 52,253 -66
NASDAQ: 26,068 -145
S&P 500: 7478 -21
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.