CHM Blog

Stocks began quietly this morning, last Thursday the 10 year note dropped 4 bps, this morning up 4 bps. This morning the bond market is focused on inflation data coming on Thursday, June PCE (personal consumption index), the Fed’s preferred inflation report.

Today it isn’t issues in Iran that is putting slight pressure on the bond market, its inflation. The estimates released over the weekend are forecasting inflation increases overall. Last week new Fed chair Warsh made a point that employment is holding firm casting most Fed concerns toward inflation.

Data this week: Tuesday 2 year note auction. Wednesday 5 year note auction, Q1 current account deficit (-$227.0B from -$190.7B in Q4 2025), MBA mortgage applications, May new home sales (640K from 622K). Thursday 7 year note auction, final Q1 GDP (+1.6% unch from prelim. report), weekly jobless claims (225K from 226K), May personal income and spending (income +0.4% from 0.0%, spending +0.5% unch from April). PCE inflation (overall month/month +0.4% from 0.0%, year/year +4.1% from +3.8%; ex food and energy month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +3.4% from +3.3%), final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (49.9 from 48.8 mid-month).

RIP Alan Greenspan, 100 years. One if not the most influential Fed chairs serving 17 years under four different presidents.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.50% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.29% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.24% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.94% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.04 -17 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am Thursday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.87 -9 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am Thursday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.25 -15 bp (-26 bp from 9:30 am Thursday)

Dollar/Yen: 161.90 +0.60 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1436 -$0.0036

Dollar Index: 101.011 +0.16

Gold: $4,211.00 -$34.90

Bitcoin: 65,434 +1294

Crude Oil: $74.78 -$1.82

DJIA: 51,830 +265

NASDAQ: 26,534 +16

S&P 500: 7527 +26

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.