CHM Blog

The headline data this morning, February PCE, the Fed’s primary measure of inflation. Month/month overall in line with estimates, month/month core where the Fed looks, expected +0.3% increased to +0.4%. Personal income month/month -0.1%, spending +0.5% in line with forecasts. The data is from February prior to the conflict with Iran.

The final GDP growth in Q4 2025 reported weaker than forecasts at 0.5% with estimates of +0.7%. Once again, its old data, the first release was three months ago had GDP +1.4%, lower revisions on the second and now the final report.

Weekly jobless claims expected at 212K, increased to 219K, +16K from the prior week, the number remained firmly below the averages from the second half of 2025. Continuing claims, which are a proxy for outstanding unemployment in the country, dropped by 38,000 to 1,794,000, the lowest level since May 2024. The latest release continued to reflect a robust labor market with low firing and low net firing holding against signals of a softer pace of labor force growth. Continuing claims, a proxy for outstanding unemployment, dropped by 38K to 1,794 million, the lowest in nearly two years. The latest release continues to reflect a firm labor market with low net firing.

At 1 pm Treasury will sell $22B of 30 year bonds, yesterday’s 10 year auction met with soft demand.

The focus remains on the Iran conflict, already there is dissention on the cease fire, Iran accusing of Israel of attacking Lebanon. Abu Dhabi’s oil minister said, “This moment requires clarity,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in a social media post. “So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.” Iran has made clear that ships must obtain its permission to pass through the Strait, Al Jaber said. “That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” the ADNOC chief said.

Nothing left on the schedule today except the Treasury auction and that won’t move markets. News on the cease fire will dominate.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.31% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.93% unch

2 year note: 3.80% unch

30 year bond: 4.91% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.74 -1 bp (-30 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.17 +8 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.91 -12 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.03 +0.45 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1683 +$0.0022

Dollar Index: 98.86 -0.28

Gold: $4,799.50 +$22.30

Bitcoin: 70,882 -442

Crude Oil: $99.34 +$4.93

DJIA: 47,865 -45

NASDAQ: 22,5777 -52

S&P 500: 6775 -7

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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