CHM Blog

The jobs report blinked. Housing didn’t

Think of the economy like a patient investor: one bad month doesn't trigger a sell-off, and one good month doesn't mean it's time to pop the champagne.

February's employment numbers came in softer than expected, with nonfarm payrolls dropping 92,000 and the unemployment rate nudging up to 4.4%. If you pair that with a downward revision to December's numbers, the start of 2026 looks choppier than it did a month ago. But before you doom-scroll, it’s heartening to know analysts say the "low-hire, low-fire" job market is still largely intact. And the two-month picture together suggests we're looking at volatility, not a trend.

For the Federal Reserve, the report changes very little — at least for now. Wages are still rising at a healthy clip, and prediction markets put the odds of a March rate cut at less than 5%. All eyes are on this week's inflation data, with CPI dropping on March 11th and PCE — the Fed's preferred measure — following on the 13th. Until core inflation shows meaningful movement below that stubborn 3% level, the Fed is staying put.

Meanwhile, the housing market has its own read on things, and it's considerably more optimistic. Yes, mortgage rates ticked back up after a brief flirtation with lower numbers — but week-to-week comparisons miss the bigger picture. The money shot number that matters heading into spring? Rates are currently sitting roughly 60 basis points below where they were last year at this time. That's real purchasing power in the hands of real buyers.

Early signals are encouraging. So put a smile on that early spring face. Pending home sales just posted their strongest year-over-year gain since 2024. New listings are climbing. Median list prices have dipped 2.1% — a modest but meaningful welcome mat for buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines.

The labor market doesn't have to be booming for housing to find its footing. It just needs to stay steady. Right now, steady looks doable.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under a little pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -39 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) Jobs.

1) Geopolitical: While geopolitical risk/concern over an ever-expanding campaign in Iran is real, the main focus in the markets is oil prices. We started last week with WTI Crude at $71 and ended the week in the high 80's. Now, this week start off in triple digits. The higher/longer scenario versus the higher/shorter time period scenario is what the bond market will focus on the most.

2) Inflation: We get two key inflationary reads this week with CPI and PCE. PCE wont hit until Friday though and the bond market will focus on CORE PCE YOY.

3) Jobs: We will get the delayed JOLTS report along with our weekly dose of Initial Claims.

Treasury Auctions this week: VERY important 30Y auction this week.

03/10 3YR note

03/11 10YR note

03/12 30YR bond

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets continue to be under pressure. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels and could easily become high later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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