December 11th, 2025 9:47 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The cut happened but it isn’t likely a January cut is in the cards; there are increasing members of the FOMC that are tilting toward pausing.
The Fed is worrying about the decline in employment although some recent reports have shown employment not as soft as forecasts. The Fed is divided internally, the most dissents on the vote yesterday (9-3) since September 2019; one dissenter wanted 50 bps cut, two others no cut at all. It is a moving target, and circumstances can change quickly but now markets and traders are not expecting additional cuts from the Fed.
Grabbing at straws; yesterday Powell indicated the Fed would start buying treasury bills to increase its balance sheet and provide stabilization in the over night rates. It is known as quantitative easing when the Fed buys and quantitative tightening when the Fed sells. Some believe it is a positive sign; the reality is it’s a reserve management tool used by the Fed to assure it has enough reserves; tomorrow the Fed will by $40B of bills.
Weekly jobless claims this morning were higher than estimates. Claims filed last week totaled 236K against estimates of 219K, 44K higher than the prior week. It is the biggest one week jump since March 2020. Continuing claims fell to 1,838K in the week ending November 29th 2025, the lowest since April 12th, from a downwardly revised 1,937K in the previous period, and well below forecasts of 1,950K.
September US trade deficit -$52.8B, better than forecasts of -$64.1B, the lowest since June 2020, compared to a $59.3B gap in August.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +257, NASDAQ -150, S&P -19. 10 year 4.11% -4 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +9 bps and +33 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm $22B 30 year bond auction.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.11% -4 bp
5 year note: 3.69% -5 bp
2 year note: 3.51% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.75% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.13 +9 bp (+33 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.42 +7 bp (+17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.91 +10 bp (+31 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.08 -0.93 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1740 +$0.0043
Dollar Index: 98.23 -0.56
Gold: $4,269.20 +$44.50
Bitcoin: 90,288 -2183
Crude Oil: $57.29 -$1.17
DJIA: 48,286 +229
NASDAQ: 23,327 -327
S&P 500: 6856 -31
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.