February 19th, 2026 8:48 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am ET were less than forecasted. The estimates for claims were 225K but fell to 206K, -23K from the previous week; claims are well below the average through the start of last year. Continuing claims though, which are a proxy for outstanding unemployment in the US, inched higher by 17,000 to 1,869,000 on the first week of February.
Tomorrow December inflation. PCE is expected month/month overall at +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +2.8% from 3.0%; the core (ex-food and energy) month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +2.9% from 3.0%. If we see those estimates as fact it would imply inflation isn’t increasing or declining.
Also today another delayed release, December US trade deficit expected at -$83.6B reported at -$99.3B. According to the Congressional Budget Office this morning the US debt will exceed the US GP by the end of this year, debt held by the public will balloon to more than $56 trillion by 2036 as annual deficits continue to mount, according to the latest projections.
At 10 am January pending home sales expected +2.5% from -9.3% in December. Details this afternoon.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.09% +1 bp
5 year note: 3.66% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.48% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.72% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.21 -2 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.51 -2 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.11 -3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.15 +0.32 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1752 -$0.0030
Dollar Index: 98.03 +0.33
Gold: $5,004.10 -$5.40
Bitcoin: 66,247 +28
Crude Oil: $66.54 +$1.35
DJIA: 49,530 -132
NASDAQ: 22,712 -42
S&P 500: 6872 -9
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.