CHM Blog

This morning May JOLTS job openings and June consumer confidence index. Tomorrow ADP private jobs, Challenger, Gray, Christmas June job cuts weekly jobless cuts. Thursday June BLS employment report. Comments from Fed chair Warsh last week that employment is holding steady.

This morning the 10 year note opened at 4.40% +2 bps, MBS prices at 9 am -11 bps. At 9 am April Case/Shiller 20 city home price index expected -0.1% reported unchanged; year/year +1.1% with forecasts at +0.9%. It marked the first acceleration in home price growth since November 2025, though prices remained near a three-year low, reflecting a cooling US housing market.

At 9:45 am June Chicago purchasing managers index expected at 55.4 reported at 56.7 but down from 62.7 in May.

At 10 am JOLTS job openings increased by 9,000 to 7.594 million in May 2026, the highest since May 2024 and well above market expectations of 7.30 million, highlighting labor market resilience despite rising energy costs from the Iran conflict. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index inched up by 0.6 points to 91.2 (1985=100) in June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.0 points to 116.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 3.0 points to 74.4. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

PRICES @ 10:15 AM

10 year note: 4.40% +2 bp

5 year note: 4.18% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.14% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.89% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @10 am 100.48 -16 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @10 am 102.29 -3 bp (unch from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @10 am 100.54 -4 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 162.40 +0.47 yen ( 40 year low against the dollar)

Dollar/Euro: $1.1401 -$0.0022

Dollar Index: 101.33 +0.23

Gold: $4,035.30 -$3.60

Bitcoin: 58,268 -2084

Crude Oil: $70.93 +$0.18

DJIA: 52,248 +66

NASDAQ: 25,989 +168

S&P 500: 7467 +27

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.