CHM Blog

Buyers aren’t calling the shots yet, but stay tuned

For buyers who hold out hope for buying a home in 2025, it would be great to believe the housing market is about to flip. Realtor.com’s Allaire Conte says take heart — we're living through a market shift right now. Its slow, gentle nature just isn’t making headlines quite yet. So if you're trying to figure out whether now's the time to buy or sell, you're not alone.

She reports that after years of sellers calling all the shots, things are starting to change. Mortgage rates have dipped a bit, and active listings rose 17% year over year in September, marking the 23rd straight monthly gain. The typical home now sits for 62 days on the market—a full week longer than last year—and approximately 1 in 5 listings are cutting prices. But don't pop the Dom Perignon yet, as inventory bubbles still pop in territory significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels.

You may have forgotten what a seller's market looks like. Conte defines it as (1) there are fewer than 6 months of available housing inventory, (2) homes sell at or above asking price, (3) days on market are low (4) bidding wars become the norm again. If it all sounds familiar, it’s because most of the country has been stuck in this pattern since the early 2010s, when new-home construction never caught up after the 2008 financial crisis.

Realtor’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale noted as long ago as July that the balance of power in the housing market keeps shifting in favor of homebuyers. A report a month before that confirmed that growing inventory, price cuts, and slower-moving homes had given buyers more leverage than they'd had in years. Still, we're not swimming in buyer-market territory quite yet. Mortgage rates remain high, and list prices are holding steady, even growing a tad year over year. Think of it as “buyer-smiley” rather than buyer-controlled.

National averages don't tell the whole story, however, according to Conte. One Atlanta-based Realtor she consulted with says her last listing went under contract in 16 days, with another buyer's home selling in just 2 days. Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, suggests checking your local median “days on market” as well as the percentage of listings with price cuts to gauge your specific market.

For sellers, this isn't necessarily bad news. Strategic pricing, professional staging, and good timing can still generate multiple offers. For buyers, getting pre-approved, staying flexible with contingencies, and using escalation clauses wisely can help you compete without overpaying.

As Krimmel puts it, "The market is becoming relatively less favorable to sellers, but it’s still a seller's market in an absolute sense." Translation? The pendulum is swinging, but don’t take any bets on how far and how fast quite yet.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +3 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that could impact rates this week, 1) Geopolitical, 2) The Fed and 3) Treasury Auctions.

Geopolitical:

The Government Shutdown continues to be front and center, but it appears that the Senate may have reached a deal. The G7 Meeting is this week and will get a lot of attention.

The Fed:

It will be a busy week with Barr, Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran, Collins, Schmid and Logan all speaking.

Treasury Auction:

There will be treasury auctions on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday's 30-year Bond auction will get the most attention.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some sideways trading that has now come under pressure. Volatility has started at low levels, but could increase on any shutdown news or unexpected reports.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.