December 8th, 2025 10:17 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
It’s FOMC week; Tuesday the meeting starts, Wednesday the policy statement and Powell’s press conference. There is a growing worry that the policy statement and Powell will imply a January cut may not be easy, like the last FOMC meeting when Powell tossed cold water on the inevitability of a December cut.
The Fed is very divided. Key officials like NY Fed’s Williams, Michell Bowman, Fed Goveror Waller and some regional Fed officials talking about the need to cut more, while Powell and others remain tilted toward moving slowly. The most recent data on employment show it is weakening, what Powell expects. Inflation not improving but not increasing yet the Fed is reluctant to move.
This week’s calendar:
Monday 1 pm $58B 3 yr note auction.
Tuesday October JOLTS job openings, ADP weekly job change, November NFIB small business optimism index (98.1 frm 98.2), Q3 productivity and unit labor costs, $39B 10 yr note auction, FOMC begins.
Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Q3 employment cost index (+0.9%, year/year +3.7%, may be delayed), Policy statement and Powell at 2 pm, The Fed will issue its projections for employment and inflation over the next 2 years. November Treasury budget statement at 2 pm.
Thursday weekly jobless claims (218K frm 191K), November PPI, $22B 10 yr note auction.
Nothing on Friday.
At 1 pm $58B 3 yr note auction.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr note: 4.18% +4 bp
5 yr note: 3.77% +5 bp
2 year note: 3.61% +4 bp
30 yr bond: 4.81% +2 bp
30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.11 -4 bp (-9 bp frm 9:30 am Friday)
30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.38 -5 bp (-2 bp frm 9:30 am Friday)
30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.82 -4 bp (-10 bp frm 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.86 +0.50 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1640 -$0.0005
Dollar Index: 99.00 unch
Gold: $4,229.50 -$13.50
Bitcoin: 91,299 -156
Crude Oil: $59.33 -$0.75
DJIA: 47,919 -33
NASDAQ: 23,599 +21
S&P 500: 6866 -4
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.