July 2nd, 2026 8:52 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
June BLS employment report this morning was well off the mark in terms of forecasts. NFP jobs +57K with estimates at 114K, private jobs +49K with estimates at 123K. May NFP jobs revised from 172K to 129K, May private jobs revised from 120K to 97K. The unemployment rate expected at 4.3% where it has been for months declined to 4.2%. The immediate reaction pushed the 2 year note down 5 bps, the 5 year -2 bps, the 10 unchanged from yesterday.
The weak employment dents the view the Fed will increase rates for the moment. If the Fed is determined to increase the FF rate, when will it do it? Interesting question, the next FOMC meeting is July 28th, is that when the Fed would act? If the Fed waits until Sept 15th or October 27th it would happen in front of the mid-term elections.
Weekly jobless claims this morning expected at 220K, reported at 215K from 216K the previous week, the lowest in five weeks. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment, rose by 2,000 to 1,814,000 in the third week of June, the highest in three months.
No news from the US/Iran talks.
The bond market will close early at 2 pm. Stocks will trade regular hours.
Tomorrow markets will be closed.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.48% unch
5 year note: 4.22% -2 bp
2 year note: 4.14% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.98% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.22 +4 bp (+5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.07 -2 bp (+5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.42 +3 bp (+9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 160.94 -167 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1448 +$0.0070
Dollar Index: 100.73 -0.66
Gold: $4,148.00 +$65.10
Bitcoin: 61,810 +1853
Crude Oil: $67.89 -$0.69
DJIA: 52,683 +377
NASDAQ: 26,236 +196
S&P 500: 7534 +50
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.