July 8th, 2026 8:46 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday afternoon, oil prices increased, MBS prices fell. Iran attacked three ships in the Strait. The US unleashed a strong military response. MBS prices ended the day -29 bps, crude oil increased $3.35/barrel.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications declined last week. Applications in the US fell by 2.2% on the week to July 3rd, extending the muted movements from the two previous weeks, applications to refinance a mortgage fell by 4.1%. In the meantime, applications for a mortgage to buy a home inched down by 0.6%.
FOMC minutes at 2 pm this afternoon from the June meeting. These minutes may have some twists with Warsh’s first meeting. Warsh was insistent at his press conference that he wants to get inflation lower, that implies the Fed may increase the FF rate this year, talk about one increase of 0.25% has momentum. There may be more than one increase according to James Bullard former St. Louis Fed president, “A lot of people are talking about one rate increase. The committee does not generally do that. I mean, what’s the point of that?”
At 1 pm Treasury will auction $39B of 10 year notes.
At 2 pm FOMC minutes
At 3 pm May consumer credit.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.58% +3 bps
5 year note: 4.32% +2 bps
2 year note: 4.22% +2 bps
30 year bond: 5.07% +2 bps
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.94 -15 bp (-37 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.88 -11 bp (-22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.22 -9 bp (-29 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 162.52 +0.42 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1415 +$0.0002
Dollar Index: 101.30 +0.08
Gold: $4,085.50 -$71.90
Bitcoin: 61,9971 -1790
Crude Oil: $73.80 +$3.36 (yesterday +$3.35)
DJIA: 52,406 -519
NASDAQ: 25,763 -55
S&P 500: 7469 -35
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.