June 25th, 2026 9:37 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
May PCE inflation report hit right on forecasts, May personal income and spending were both stronger than estimates: The year/year core at 3.4% the highest since October 2023.
Weekly jobless claims were better than expectations. 225K expected, reported at 215K, down 12K. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment, rose by 21,000 to 1,821,000 in the first week of June, the highest in three months.
May durable goods orders month/month expected -4.7% reported -4.5%, ex-transportation orders thought to be +0.4% increased 1.3%. The overall decline, the steepest since June 2025, but followed two previous months of gains.
Q1 final GDP was much better than forecasts, growth was expected at +1.6% unchanged from the preliminary release last month, growth jumped to +2.1% a lot stronger than anticipated and up from Q4 2025 at 0.5%.
The data this morning was better than thought when seen from a near term view as inflation was as expected but at 3.4% but increased from 3.3% in April, mixed in with Warsh’s remarks last week the Fed is poised to increase rates by the end of the year unless inflation begins to slow, leaving traders’ main thoughts that if inflation does slow it will be due to lower energy prices. Yesterday rates fell unexpectedly ahead of today’s news, this morning not much improvement but holding the big declines yesterday.
At 1 pm Treasury will auction $44B of 7 year notes, yesterday’s 5 year auction was rather soft on demand.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.37% -2 bp
5 year note: 4.15% -3 bp
2 year note: 4.11% -5 bp
30 year bond: 4.83% unch
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 100.55 +11 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 102.21 +7 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 100.61 +8 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 161.82 unch
Dollar/Euro: $1.1361 +$0.0004
Dollar Index: 101.48 -0.13
Gold: $4,032.80 +$25.00
Bitcoin: 60,617 +740
Crude Oil: $69.91 -$0.43
DJIA: 52,089 +240
NASDAQ: 25,217 -258
S&P 500: 7345 -13
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.