May 13th, 2026 1:03 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday April CPI (consumer prices) increased more than estimates adding to the now total belief the Fed won’t be able to lower their key rate this year. This morning’s April PPI (producer prices) were even worse than CPI. PPI month/month expected at +0.5% increased 1.4%, year/year thought to be +4.8% increased 6.0% and up from 4.0% in March. The core, ex food and energy month/month estimates were +0.3% increased 1.0%, year/year core forecasts 4.3% increased 5.2% and up from 3.8% in March. The increase is the most since March 2022.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week were better than thought. Overall applications rose by 1.7% from the previous week in the first week of May, trimming two straight periods of drops, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications increased 4.0% while re-finance apps to refinance a mortgage, which is more sensitive to short-term changes, eased by 1%.
At 1 pm Treasury will sell $25B of 30 year bonds, recent Treasury auctions haven’t met with strong demand.
Yesterday the Senate approved Kevin Warsh to head up the Fed.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.47% +1 bp
5 year note: 4.13% unch
2 year note: 3.99% -1 bp
30 year bond: 5.03% unch
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.18 -2 bp (-14 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.91 -2 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.49 -7 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.78 +0.17 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1708 -$0.0033
Dollar Index: 98.54 +0.24
Gold: $4,687.20 +$0.50
Bitcoin: 79,822 -989
Crude Oil: $102.55 +$0.39
DJIA: 49,528 -233
NASDAQ: 26,079 -9
S&P 500: 7394 -6
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.