CHM Blog

Buyers win … if you tune out the noise

Spring is springing. And for the first time in years, it's showing up with a gift for buyers.

Realtor.com's Jiayi Xu reports that increasing inventory and softening prices are giving buyers more advantages this spring than they've had in recent memory. Mortgage rates, while they've ticked up recently, remain at their most favorable springtime levels since 2022 — so let that sink in. It's been a long wait.

That said, optimism comes with fine print. Rising Middle East tensions are casting a shadow over financial markets, and that kind of geopolitical uncertainty has a way of rattling both buyers and sellers. Rate volatility is a real possibility. Xu suggests buyers "rate-proof" their budgets now, using online mortgage affordability calculators to stress-test their finances against potential increases before they happen.

On the inventory front, newly listed homes have been bouncing between positive and negative territory all year. Sellers vacillate on when it’s a good time to sell. February posted a 2.4% monthly gain, but year to date, new listings are still running 3.4% below where they were in 2025. Lower rates compared to last spring should be encouraging more sellers to list — but the combination of rising rates over the past three weeks and economic jitters may be keeping some would-be sellers on the sidelines. That's the number to watch in the weeks ahead.

Xu says overall inventory is up 7.8% year over year, which means buyers have choices. But the pace of that recovery is slowing, and part of the reason may actually be good news: sales appear to be picking up slightly, absorbing some of that supply.

Homes are sitting a bit longer, too — a median of 59 days on the market, 5 days slower than this time last year. But with the so-called "best week to sell" approaching on the calendar, that could shift quickly if buyers move to take advantage of current rates before they climb further.

The most striking data point? This marks the 22nd consecutive week of flat or negative year-over-year price growth. Asking prices are genuinely falling. The price-per-square-foot metric dropped 2.5% compared to last year — and Xu is careful to note this isn't just smaller homes skewing the numbers. Underlying home values are actually declining.

For patient buyers, spring 2026 may be the opening they've been waiting for.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -17 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week, 1) Geopolitical, 2) Jobs and 3) Retail Sales.

1) Geopolitical: This has been and will continue to be the dominate force in all marketplaces for several weeks if not months.

2) Jobs: We will have Big Jobs Friday just before an early market close. Throughout the week we will get some form of job and wage related data ranging from ISMs to Weekly Claims.

3) Retail Sales: The top of the food pyramid.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing a small bounce back from last week. Volatility has started at moderate levels but will likely increase later this week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.