CHM Blog

The final report on jobs this morning, the December BLS employment report. The US economy added 50K payrolls in December, less than a downwardly revised 56K (originally 64K) in November and below forecasts of 60K. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68K to -173K and the change for November was revised down by 8K to +56K. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76K lower than previously reported. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.3%, over a month to $37.02 in December 2025, after an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in November, matching market forecasts. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8% in December, following an upwardly revised 3.6% advance in November and surpassing market estimates of a 3.6% rise. Less jobs than thought but the unemployment declined implying less workers, confirmed by the labor participation rates declining from 62.5% to 62.4%.

The reaction to the employment report in the treasury markets wasn’t much, the 10 year note hit 4.20% then backed down to 4.18% unchanged from yesterday before going back to 4.20% at 10 am.

The President announced yesterday that he is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in an effort to lower mortgage rates and make homeownership more affordable. The purchase will be funded by the liquidity on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's balance sheets, not by the Federal Reserve or Treasury Department.

At 10 am the University of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index is better than December.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.20% +2 bp

5 year note: 3.76% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.52% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.86% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.30 +18 bp (+59 bp from 9:30 am yesterday ???)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.70 +30 bp (+28 bp from 9:30 am yesterday ???)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.17 +38 bp (+37 bp from 9:30 am yesterday ???)

Dollar/Yen: 157.96 +1.08 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1637 -$0.0024

Dollar Index: 99.08 +0.15

Gold: $4,506.10 +$45.40

Bitcoin: 90,319-528

Crude Oil: $59.06 +$1.30

DJIA: 49,355 +89

NASDAQ: 23,512 +32

S&P 500: 6940 +18

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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