January 23rd, 2026 10:52 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday's weekly jobless claims continued to show the US labor market is not worsening as the Fed has been worrying about. It’s old data but November inflation month/month remained unchanged from October, although year/year inflation did increase more than estimates. Recent key data on employment and inflation will keep the Fed on alert, there will not be a rate cut next week when the FOMC meets but there is still belief that the Fed will lower the FF rate this year, some saying two cuts. The takeaway from that outlook is the continuing belief unemployment will increase along with inflation, so far that bet doesn’t look promising.
Yesterday the House passed the final set of outstanding government funding bills as a partial federal government shutdown looms on January 30th. Four bills passed, the final four of 12 annual appropriations bills required to fund the government and avoid a partial shutdown. Now its on the Senate that isn’t working this week and due back on Monday (assuming the coming storm doesn’t interfere).
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -150, NASDAQ +2, S&P -3. 10 year 4.25% unchanged up from 4.22% at 8 am. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am unchanged from yesterday’s close and +6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am the preliminary January PMI indexes; manufacturing expected at 52.0, reported at 51.9, services expected at 52.8 reported at 52.5.
At 10 am the final January University Of Michigan consumer sentiment index thought to be at 54 increased to 56.4.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.25% unch
5 year note: 3.85%unch
2 year note: 3.61% unch
30 year bond: 4.84% unch
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.85 unch (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.26 unch (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.73 +1 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.28 -0.14 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1746 -$0.0010
Dollar Index: 98.30 -0.06
Gold: $4,948.00 +$34.60 ($5,000.00 ahead)
Bitcoin: 88,607 -716
Crude Oil: $61.19 +$1.83
DJIA: 49,134 -250
NASDAQ: 23,449 +13
S&P 500: 6910 -3
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.