February 6th, 2026 4:33 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday, Challenger, Grey, and Christmas released its January job losses. Employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009. Companies announced just 5,306 new hires, also the lowest January since 2009. The huge declines reset the outlook for a Fed rate cutt.
A lower employment outlook has been a factor in the Fed’s thinking, as well as inflation. On Wednesday ADP reported private jobs increased 22K, half of what the estimates were (48K). Combine the ADP and the Challenger, Grey, and Christmas job losses yesterday lowers the bar for the Fed to act.
The combined data this week has increased the thoughts that the Fed might cut its FF rate at the next FOMC meeting on March 18th… IF the data scheduled to be reported next week cooperates. Next Wednesday BLS will report the January employment data, next Friday January CPI inflation.
The yield curve is steepening. Don’t overlook the increasing US debt and geopolitical conditions that will work against long term rates. Yields on shorter-dated maturities — more sensitive to Fed policy expectations — tumbled the most since August, while those on long-dated tenors declined less. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year notes compared with their two-year counterparts hit 73.7 basis points this week.
At 9:30 am the DJIA rebounded from yesterday’s 600 point decline to open +409, NASDAQ +53, S&P +42. 10 at 9:30 am 4.20% +1 bp. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday’s close and +25 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bp from yesterday’s close and +16 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am the preliminary Feb University of Michigan consumer sentiment index expected at 55.5 from 56.4 in January. It was reported at 57.3.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.21% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.76% +4 bp
2 year note: 3.50% +4 bp
30 year bond: 4.87% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.03 +4 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.48 +4 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.07 +4 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 156.83 -0.22 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1824 +$0.0044
Dollar Index: 97.59 -0.23
Gold: $4,965.80 +$75.60
Bitcoin: 68,215 +4618
Crude Oil: $63.28 unch
DJIA: 49,624 +716
NASDAQ: 22,757 +216
S&P 500: 6873 +74
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.