CHM Blog

There were no market-moving reports on the Iran conflict overnight. A very fluid situation now.

Two key data points this morning. Weekly jobless claims expected at 210K from 208K the previous week, increased to 214K +6K. The 4-week average edged a little higher, from 210K to 210.75K. Weekly claims over the last three months have hovered at 210K and 205K. Continuing claims are where traders are more focused. Continuing claims increased by 12K from the previous report to 1.821 million. Both counts were firmly below the average from the previous year, consolidating the ongoing trend of low firing activity.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.20 in March 2026, its lowest level since November 2025, down from a revised +0.03 in February. The employment-related indicators improved, adding +0.02 compared to -0.15 in February.

The key data this morning, the preliminary April PMI report for the manufacturing and service sector. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.0 in April 2026, up from 52.3 in March and surpassing market expectations of 52.5. This marks the strongest improvement in factory business conditions since May 2022. The service sector index expected at 50.0 increased to 51.3 and better than 49.8 in March.

Fannie and Freddie turning to different credit scoring from Fair Isaac (FICO) to VantageScore 4.0. The two government-backed entities are testing acceptance of VantageScore 4.0, a rival to FICO that’s jointly owned by Equifax. The limited rollout will ultimately give way to “broader availability as the market moves forward with full implementation of modernized credit scoring and credit reporting,” Fannie Mae said in a statement.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.29% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.92% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.80% unch

30 year bond: 4.90% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.88 +2 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.25 unch (unch from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.86 unch (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.56 +0.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1694 -$0.0010

Dollar Index: 98.69 +0.10

Gold: $4,748.60 -$4.40

Bitcoin: 77,569 -1310

Crude Oil: $94.19 +$1.23

DJIA: 49,275 -215

NASDAQ: 24,535 -123

S&P 500: 7122 -16

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.