February 13th, 2026 9:27 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The last major economic data point this week, January CPI confirmed inflation isn’t increasing. The report was as expected. Core CPI (ex-food and energy), the Fed’s go to measure of inflation, edged down to 2.5% year/year in January, the lowest since March 2021, from 2.6% in December. Month/month core inflation expected at +0.3%, was at 0.3% but increased from 0.2% in December. The heavyweight shelter index increased 3%, down from December's 3.2%. Year/year overall CPI expected at +2.5% reported at 2.4% and down from 2.7% in December. The recent decline in the price of oil helped the decline, although the wider picture is inflation isn’t increasing like the Fed has been worried about.
Yesterday weekly claims increased more than thought, continuing claims also increased. Wednesday’s January BLS employment reported more jobs than estimates. Wednesday the 10 year note yield increased 3 bps.
The remainder of the day is likely to be quiet. Monday is President’s Day; the bond market will be closed.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.06% -4 bp
5 year note: 3.62% -4 bp
2 year note: 3.42% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.71% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.33 +10 bps from yesterday’s close.
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.62 +12 bps from yesterday’s close.
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.43 +7 bps from yesterday’s close.
Dollar/Yen: 153.01 +0.27 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1866 -$0.0006
Dollar Index: 96.97 +0.04
Gold: $4,990.70 +$42.30
Bitcoin: 67,257 +1915
Crude Oil: $62.35 -$0.49
DJIA: 49,353 -99
NASDAQ: 22,504 -93
S&P 500: 6819 -13
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.