February 4th, 2026 9:33 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
No real changes in the bond market in the last two weeks. This morning began unchanged with the 10 year note up 2 bps and MBS prices down 7 bps at 8:30 am ET.
January ADP private jobs reported at 8:15 am. They were expected at +48K, reported at 22K and December private jobs revised from 41K to 37K. Job creation, according to ADP in 2025 declined with private employers adding 398K jobs, down from 771K in 2024. It’s a job market that shows low hiring's as well as low firings and supports the Fed’s belief that unemployment may increase. The Fed has a dismal record when it comes to forecasting employment and inflation. Small employers (50 to 499 jobs) added all the growth. Wage gains growth +4.5% unchanged from December. ADP and BLS data have a history of being deviant; BLS will not report January employment data that was expected due to the 4-day government closure. No release date set yet for BLS, the government is open again.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week fell by 8.9% from the previous week. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home sank by 14%, the decline impacted by the weather last week; refinance apps down 5%.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +196, NASDAQ -60, S&P +3. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.29% +2 bps. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from yesterday’s close and -1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday; the 5.5 coupon at 9:30 am +2 bps and +8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am January final PMI composite index 53.0 against 52.8 in the prelim release. The service index 52.7 from 52.5.
At 10 am the January ISM services index thought to be 53.8, reported at 53.8.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.29% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.85% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.59% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.91% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.72 -6 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.33 +2 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.79 -7 bp (unch from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 156.49 +0.72
Dollar/Euro: $1.1818 unch
Dollar Index: 97.55 +0.11
Gold: $5,016.00 +$81.00
Bitcoin: 75,312 -1082
Crude Oil: $63.40 +$0.19
DJIA: 49,290 +49
NASDAQ: 23,030 -225
S&P 500: 6890 -28
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.