June 3rd, 2026 1:34 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
US and Iran using military force today, the US struck an empty oil tanker that it said was attempting to breach its blockade. Iran firing ballistic missiles at US bases and later launching drones that struck Kuwait airport; it’s the most intense bouts of fighting since the ceasefire began in April.
ADP reported its May private jobs this morning, expectations were at 120K jobs added, it was reported at 122K, a new high since January 2025. Yesterday April JOLTS job openings increased much more than forecasts. expected at 6.833 mil from 6.887 mil jumped to 7.618 mil showing employment remains strong. The highest since November 2024. Job openings increased over the year by 520,000. In April, the number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+668,000), but decreased in finance and insurance (-135,000). Over the month, hires and total separations decreased to 5.1 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, both quits (3.0 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
The employment sector, given the data yesterday and this morning is adding more credence the Fed may have to increase rates with employment strong and inflation edging higher. Traders today pricing in an 85% chance of the Fed increasing the FF rate by 25 bps before the end of the year, up from 60% last week.
Mortgage applications in the US fell by 2.5% in the last week of May, extending the 8.5% drop in the previous period for to mark a third straight drop in applications, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for a loan to refinance an existing mortgage fell by 2.3% to extend the over 18% plunge in the earlier period. Meanwhile, applications for a mortgage to purchase eased by 2.9%.
At 10 am May ISM services Index, expected at 53.7 from 53.6; reported at 54.7.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.50% +5 bp
5 year note: 4.22% +5 bp
2 year note: 4.09% +4 bp
30 year bond: 4.99% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 101.94 -3 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 100.23 -13 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 101.59 -10 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 159.96 +0.04 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1603 -$0.0029
Dollar Index: 99.43 +0.21
Gold: $4,474.00 -$45.90
Bitcoin: 66,686 -513 (120,000 last July)
Crude Oil: $94.91 +$1.14
DJIA: 26,935 -159
NASDAQ: 75,582 -28
S&P 500: 74959 -327
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.