May 4th, 2026 9:27 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note at 8 am ET 4.42% +4 bps, by 9 am 4.40% +2 bps; MBS prices started the day relatively unchanged, -2 bps at 8 am.
This week is employment week, Friday April BLS employment data.
Crude oil prices jumped with Iran’s announcement that it attacked a US ship this morning, the price increased $5.00, by 10 am the price back to unchanged from Friday.
There are a few Fed officials speaking this week, a lot of words but nothing of consequence. The Fed will not lower the FF rates this year given the circumstances and the outlooks.
Monday
March factory orders.
Tuesday
The first jobs measurement when JOLTS job openings hit.
March new home sales (668K estimated).
April ISM services sector index (53.9 from 54.0 in March).
Wednesday
April ADP private jobs (+85K from +62K), MBA mortgage applications.
Thursday
Weekly jobless claims (205K from 189K the prior week, the lowest claims since 1969).
Q1 prelim productivity and unit labor costs (productivity +1.7%, unit labor costs +2.0% from 4.4% in Q4 2025).
March construction spending (+0.4% from +0.2%).
Friday
April employment; NFP jobs (+63K from +178K, unemployment rate 4.3% from 4.4%, private jobs 67K from 186K, month/month average hourly earnings +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +3.8% from 3.6%).
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.42% +4 bp
5 year note: 4.07% +5 bp
2 year note: 3.94% +5 bp
30 year bond: 5.00% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.45 -10 bp (-11 bp from 8:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.07 -4 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.69 -8 bp (-8 bp from 8:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.00 -0.06 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1717 -$0.0006
Dollar Index: 98.27 +0.11
Gold: $4,575.40 -$69.10
Bitcoin: 78,886 +109
Crude Oil: $102.30 +$0.36
DJIA: 49,332 -168
NASDAQ: 25,138 +23
S&P 500: 7231 +1
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.