CHM Blog

January non-farm payrolls were expected +70K, increased 130K. Private jobs thought to be +75K, increased 172K. Private jobs in December originally reported +37K revised to 64K.The unemployment rate did decline from 4.4% in December. Expected in January at 4.4%, reported at 4.3%. Month/month average hourly earnings expected +0.3% increased 0.4%, December average hourly earnings originally reported +0.3% revised to +0.1%; year/year January earnings thought to be +3.6% increased to 3.7% but lower than December’s 3.8%.

BLS history recently isn’t good, huge job revisions have taken the confidence level of accuracy to low levels, nevertheless markets react to headlines and less on specifics. BLS today saying today total nonfarm employment growth for 2025 was revised down to +181K from +584K, implying average monthly job gains of just 15K, well below the previously reported 49K. Annual BLS revisions also showed the economy had 862,000 fewer jobs from April 2024 to March 2025 than initially estimated. Previous BLS revisions also showed the economy had 862,000 fewer jobs from April 2024 to March 2025 than initially estimated.

Weekly mortgage applications last week down by 0.3% from the previous week, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Application for a mortgage to purchase a new home fell by 2.4%, winter storms across the country drove potential buyers to be snowed in. In turn, applications for contracts to refinance a mortgage, which are sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, rose by 1.2%.

At 1 pm this afternoon Treasury will auction $42B of new 10 year notes.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.19% +4 bp

5 year note: 3.77% +7 bp

2 year note: 3.53% +7 bp

30 year bond: 4.82% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.94 -15 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.33 -9 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.23 unch (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 153.66 -0.73 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1858 -$0.0039

Dollar Index: 97.00 +0.20

Gold: $5,063.40 +$32.40

Bitcoin: 67,221 -1507

Crude Oil: 65.70 +$1.74

DJIA: 50,028 +110

NASDAQ: 23,145 +45

S&P 500: 6964 +22

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.