CHM Blog

At 8:30 am ET the November employment data was released. Early this morning prior to employment the 2 year note yield down 5 bps, the 10 year note down 4 bps. It all evaporated when the data hit.

Non-farm payrolls were expected +40K for November and part of October, jobs increased 64K but prior jobs revised from +119K to -105K. The unemployment rate thought to be 4.5% increased to 4.6% and up from 4.4% in prior reports. Private jobs expected +30K increased to 69K, prior private jobs revised from 97K to 52K. The labor participation rate reported at 62.5% from 62.4%. Average hourly earnings +0.1% month/month. The smallest increase since August 2023, year/year +3.5% the weakest since May 2021 and down from 3.7% in October. The US has added a mere 100,000 jobs in the past six months. The bulk of those jobs were in healthcare, an industry that is almost always hiring due to America’s aging population. Given the data disruptions the Fed won’t put a lot of faith in the numbers today.

ADP reported its new moving weekly calculations saying private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 29, 2025, following a downwardly revised average gain of 2,750 jobs in the previous period. This marked the second consecutive period of job gains, signaling a potential rebound in hiring after four weeks of job losses.

October retail sales less than forecasts, 0.0% against estimates of +0.2% and September revised from +0.2% to 0.1%; ex-vehicles +0.4% from revised 0.1% in September. Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, soared 0.8%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in September and much higher than expectations of 0.1%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly -32, NASDAQ -46, S&P -9. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.19% +1 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon -1 bp from yesterday’s close and +1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.18% unch

5 year note: 3.72% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.50% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.85% unch

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.04 -1 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.44 +2 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.78 unch (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 154.74 -0.47 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1792 +$0.0037

Dollar Index: 98.01 -0.30

Gold: $4,358.00 +$22.80

Bitcoin: 87,243 +1437

Crude Oil: $55.48 -$1.34

DJIA: 48,411 -6

NASDAQ: 23,105 +47

S&P 500: 6816 -0.04

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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