CHM Blog

Yesterday the 10 year note ended the session unchanged from Monday. This morning very soft November ADP private jobs. The forecasts for private jobs was a gain of 22K; jobs decreased -32K. It is the biggest decline in payrolls since March 2023, led by falls in manufacturing (-18K), professional/business services (-26K), information (-20K), construction (-9K) and financial activities (-9K). On the other hand, job gains occurred in education/health services (33K), leisure/ hospitality (13K), natural resources/mining (8K) and trade, transportation and utilities (1K. More confirmation employment is slowing and supporting the view the Fed may lower their key rate again in January.

September import prices were flat with estimates of -0.2%, year/year +0.3% with forecasts of 0.0%. It is delayed data but relevant, it was the third straight month without declines in imports. September export prices month/month unchanged from August, year/year exports increased 3.8% from +3.2% in August.

MBA reported weekly mortgage applications for last week declined 1.4%, purchase applications +2.5% while refinance apps dropped 4.4%, the weakest level in three months.

At 9:15 am September industrial production increased 0.1% as expected, capacity utilization at 75.9% with forecasts at 77.3%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -40, NASDAQ -109, S&P -15. 10 year at 9:30 4.07% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +17 bps from 9:30 yesterday.

At 9:45 am November PMI service index thought to be at 55.0 declined to 54.1 following the slide in the manufacturing index on Monday.

At 10 am November ISM services index thought to be 52.1 increased to 52.6.

Next up, tomorrow weekly jobless claims estimates at 225K up from 216K the previous week.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.06% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.63% -3 bp

2 year note: 3.49% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.73% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.26 +8 bp (+17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.41 +4 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.02 +5 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 155.39 -0.48 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1664 +$0.0039

Dollar Index: 98.97 -0.38

Gold: $4,263.70 +$42.90

Bitcoin: 93,016 +1908

Crude Oil: $59.22 +$0.58

DJIA: 47,526 +51

NASDAQ: 23,318 -95

S&P 500: 6820 -9

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.