CHM Blog

A little volatility early this morning. The 10 year note increased to 4.10% +4 bps but recovered to unchanged at 8 am ET.

ADP reported more private jobs in February than expected. Estimates were for jobs to have increased 50K, ADP reported +63K, January jobs revised from +22K to +11K. Small establishments created 60K jobs and large companies added 10K while medium ones shed 7K. Meanwhile, annual pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 4.5%. For job-changers, it slowed to 6.3%. "We've seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers. But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February", Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP said.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications increased last week 11% from the previous week in the final week of February, extending the slight increases from the two previous periods to mark the fourth strongest week for mortgage applications since 2022. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in rates, jumped by 14.3%. In turn, applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home rose by 6.1%.

At 10 am February ISM services sector index, expected at 53.6 from 53.8, the index at 56.1; the improvement against forecasts matches the stronger ISM manufacturing index reported last Monday.

At 2 pm the Fed Beige Book unlikely have any impact.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.07% unch

5 year note: 3.65% unch

2 year note: 3.52% +1 bp

30 year bond: 4.72% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.07 +6 bp (+27 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.42 +4 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.13 +1 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.35 -0.39 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1629 +$0.0016

Dollar Index: 98.86 -0.19

Gold: $5,189.10 +$65.40

Bitcoin: 72,4341 +4199

Crude Oil: $74,53 -$0.03

DJIA: 48,477 -24

NASDAQ: 22,656 +140

S&P 500: 6827 +9

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.