CHM Blog

Yesterday the bellwether 10 year note yield at 4.50% +5 bps, this morning 4.46% -4 bps. MBS price yesterday down 17 bps, this morning starting +12 bps.

Weekly jobless claims higher than forecasts at 8:30 am ET, claims rose by 13,000 to 225,000 in the last week of May, above market expectations of 212,000. It was the highest initial claim count since the first week of February. However continuing claims (filings after the initial claims expired) which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment dropped by 8,000 in the earlier week to 1,777,000. While failing to maintain the low levels of the last quarter, the figure remained within the average of the last two years.

More at 8:30 am: Q1 revised productivity and unit labor costs. Unit labor costs were thought to be +2.3% but increased just 1.8% and down from 2.1% in Q4. Hourly pay +2.1% in hourly compensation, down from 3.7% Q4. Productivity in Q1 rose by 0.3% in Q1, less than 0.8% in the preliminary estimate and compared to a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter. The smallest productivity gain in a year as output increased 1% and hours worked rose 0.7%.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported May job cuts in May were 97,006, the most since January. The highest since 2020 and also marks the third straight month that cuts have risen. Last Tuesday the April job openings increased more than forecasts triggering comments that the economy is improving and may force the Fed to increase the FF rate later this year, this report softens that idea somewhat.

There isn’t any news about Iran this morning.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.46% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.17% -5 bp

2 year note: 4.04% -5 bp

30 year bond: 4.97% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.00 +6 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.31 +11 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.76 +1 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.89 -0.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1640 +$0.0042

Dollar Index: 99.23 -0.30

Gold: $4,533.20 +$67.30

Bitcoin: 63,739 -1641

Crude Oil: $93.00 -$3.02

DJIA: 51,458 +771

NASDAQ: 26,556 -191

S&P 500: 7546 -8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.