CHM Blog

Yesterday the 10 year note increased +4 bps to 4.28%, MBS prices declined 19 bps. The government was still in a partial shutdown yesterday, the delay has put to the January employment off, it won’t be released. It was the key for this week for markets. The second employment data canceled in the last five months. Data collection is already finished, but the shutdown has nonetheless forced a delay in the schedule. ADP will however report its January jobs tomorrow and weekly jobless claims on Thursday still on schedule.

This morning December JOLTS job openings has been delayed, the third monthly JOLTS report of the past four to get pushed back. It was widely thought that the 43 day closure would end the partial data collection that left traders, money managers, hedge funds scrambling for details; not so as we see. Consumers are not directly affected but markets certainly are.

It has been the view recently that the Fed will cut rates two times in 2026. How long Congress will keep the government closed will add the to uncertainty about a Fed rate cut at its March FOMC meeting.

With the delay of the December JOLTS openings today there isn’t any data to be released today.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -25, NASDAQ +74, S&P +9. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.29% +1 bp. Fannie Mae 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from yesterday’s close and -15 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from the close yesterday and -13 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

There are no scheduled data points the rest of the session.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.29% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.85% +1 bp

2 year note: 3.59% unch

30 year bond: 4.92% unch

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.73 -5 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.25 -5 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.79 -2 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 155.85 +0.25 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1796 +$0.0005

Dollar Index: 97.57 -0.06

Gold: $4,940.90 +$286.10

Bitcoin: 77,805 -121

Crude Oil: $62.86 +$0.72

DJIA: 49,433 +25

NASDAQ: 23,437 -165

S&P 500: 6957 -19

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.