CHM Blog

The great American reshuffle

They waited. And they waited some more. But now cities are on the move. Realtor.com’s Julie Taylor tells us that across America, homeowners are packing up and putting up "For Sale" signs at rates not seen in years. She says it paints a fascinating picture of both where people want to be and why they're willing to leave.

Taylor analyzed turnover rates in the 50 largest metros between September 2024 and August 2025, revealing the 10 places where Americans are selling their homes most frequently. She cites Realtor’s senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones, who notes that markets with higher turnover tend to function more fluidly, with a healthier balance of active buyers and sellers. “These high-turnover markets are typically more affordable and supported by robust inventory, particularly from new construction,” she says.

Texas leads the way with 4 of the top 10 spots. San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin have all seen significant building activity over the past 5 years — a phenomenon that has helped temper home price growth and expand options for buyers. Kansas City, Missouri, however, leads the pack with a median list price of $380,000 and 45 sales per 1,000 housing units. The city's low cost of living and affordability have kept demand strong with baby boomers retiring to warmer climates.

San Antonio and Indianapolis are on a par with Kansas City at 45 sales per 1,000 units. With homes listed at a median of $329,000, corporate hiring and military rotations create constant movement. Agents there say people aren't panic selling. Rather, they are monetizing appreciation to repay debts, relocate for relatives, or escape long commutes. Taylor reports that Indianapolis, where the median list price sits at $320,000, attracts strong benefits from homeowners cashing out after significant equity growth.

Las Vegas rounds out the top 5 at $471,975 median, with retirees moving to assisted living or cooler climates, while Dallas, Nashville, Austin, and Charlotte all share a 42 sales per 1,000 turnover rate. Nashville's rapid growth, credited to tech companies and tourism, has driven up costs, prompting some to cash out. Austin saw pandemic-era buyers who ended up accumulating substantial equity deciding this is their moment, as slightly lower interest rates offer them an opportunity to capitalize on gains from 2020 to 2022.

Houston and St. Louis complete the top 10. In Houston, where homes list at a median of $358,000, rising insurance premiums and property taxes are pushing some sellers to relocate. St. Louis, emerging as America's next tech hub (homes there range around $295,900), has experienced sustained demand as buyers are drawn to its affordability.

Realtor, Redfin, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -12 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Jobs and 3) Treasury Auction.

1) The Fed: We will get the FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement Wednesday at 2 pm ET. The bond market is assuming that there will be a 25 BPS cut. The focus will actually be on their Economic Projections (dot plot chart). The bond market will be very sensitive to changes that signal either more or fewer cuts in 2026 compared to the prior release.

2) Jobs: Each jobs release is very important given that we did not get the BLS release last Friday. This week we have ADP, JOLTS and Continuing Claims.

3) Treasury Auction: We have a big week for longer term Treasuries that will hit the market. Wednesday's 30 YR Bond auction is the most important.

12/08 3 year note.

12/09 10 year note.

12/10 30 year bond.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have started under heavy pressure. Volatility has started at high levels and will stay that way until Wednesday at least.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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