February 17th, 2026 8:54 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
There are key economic reports this week culminating with the Fed’s preferred inflation report on Friday, December PCE. Data this week still reporting back data after the shutdown.
Inflation seems to be moderating, recent data on CPI at or lower than forecasts. The employment situation a very confusing picture. Weekly claims and continuing claims showing employment is moderating but recent data (two weeks ago) from Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported big increases in job cuts in January, -108K and up 205% from December.
February NAHB housing market index expected at 36 against forecasts of 38 and down from 37 in January.
Beside domestic concerns about jobs and inflation, there is the increasing belief the US and Iran will not achieve any significant agreement in the talks this week. The US moving another carrier to the Gulf making it two carrier groups. There is some movement to safety in treasuries. The USS carrier Gerald Ford will get to the gulf next week.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.05% unch
5 year note: 3.61% unch
2 year note: 3.44% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.69% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.32 -4 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.50 -7 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.16 -3 bp (- 5 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 153.45 -0.07 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1825 -$0.0026
Dollar Index: 97.36 +0.44
Gold: $4,901.30 -$145.30
Bitcoin: 67,040 -1449
Crude Oil: $62.83 -$0.06
DJIA: 49,371 -130
NASDAQ: 22,321 -226
S&P 500: 6793 -43
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.