CHM Blog

The Fed has tossed cold water on a January cut for now but with six weeks to go we can expect opinions to waffle. Looking over the news this morning remarks about another rate cut are circulating. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, he was one that voted not to lower the FF rate at the FOMC meeting saying the Fed should have waited for better data before it cut. “I’m pretty optimistic that for 2026 rates will be able to be a fair bit lower than they are today. But I’ve just been uncomfortable front loading too many rate cuts,” he said in the interview. “We don’t take a lot of extra risk, in my view, to just wait to Q1 2026, and make sure that we’re back on path at 2% inflation.”

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid another official that was against a rate cut said, “Inflation remains too high, the economy shows continued momentum, and the labor market—though cooling—remains largely in balance,”… “I view the current stance of monetary policy as being only modestly, if at all, restrictive. With this assessment, my preference was to leave the target range for the policy rate unchanged at this week’s meeting.”

One more; Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who will vote in 2026, said she views policy as “somewhat restrictive” and is more worried about unemployment than inflation.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +80 after a new high yesterday, NASDAQ -100, S&P -11. 10 year note 4.20%. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -14 bps from yesterday’s close and -17 bps lower than 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.19% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.75% unch

2 year note: 3.55% unch

30 year bond: 4.85% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.96 -14 bp (-17 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.40 -3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.83 -3 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 155.97 +0.38 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1740 unch

Dollar Index: 98.41 +0.06

Gold: $4,367.30 +$54.30

Bitcoin: 92,442 +629

Crude Oil: $57.58 -$0.02

DJIA: 48,840 +136

NASDAQ: 23,498 -96

S&P 500: 6886 -16

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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