CHM Blog

High energy prices add to the belief inflation will increase and the US debt will balloon higher. US and global budgets will increase forcing rates higher. Bond yields have spiked from the UK to Germany to Australia to Japan. How long the Iran conflict will last is the question now, each day that passes adds more uncertainty. This afternoon at 1 pm Treasury will auction $22B of 30 year bonds, the demand will get a lot of focus. Recent US borrowing has met with weak demand.

At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims expected at 217K, reported at 213, still below averages from the last two years. Continuing jobless claims, which serve as a proxy for outstanding unemployment in the US, fell by 21,000 to 1,850,000 in the last week of February.

January housing starts and permits this morning. Starts rose 7.2% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million in January 2026, up from a downwardly revised 1.387 million in December and well above forecasts of 1.35 million, the highest level since February 2025. Multi-family starts jumped 29.1% to a four-month high of 406,000, while single-family starts slipped 2.8% to 935,000. Permits fell 5.4% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.376 million in January 2026, missing market expectations of 1.41 million, the lowest since August 2025. Multi family permits declined 13.4% from a month earlier to 453,000, while single-family permits fell 0.9% to 873,000.

January US trade deficit expected -$67.9B, was better at -$54.5B. Exports increased 5.5% to a record high of $302.1B led by sales of nonmonetary gold, other precious metals, computers, civilian aircraft and computer accessories while sales were down for pharmaceutical preparations. In contrast, imports declined 0.7% to $356.6B.

Yesterday February CPI inflation was right on forecasts at 2.5%. Tomorrow January PCE (personal consumption expenditures) the Fed’s favorite inflation measure is expected at 3.0%.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.24% +2 bp

5 year note: 3.82% +1 bp

2 year note: 3 .68% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.88% unch

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.13 -19 bp (-39 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.81 -10 bp (-24 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.71 -8 bp (-24 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.01 +0.06 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1533 -$0.0035

Dollar Index: 99.47 +0.24

Gold: $5,165.80 -$13.30

Bitcoin: 70,110 -559

Crude Oil: $94.28 +$7.03

DJIA: 46,788 -628

NASDAQ: 22,384 -332

S&P 500: 6696 -80

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.