May 15th, 2026 8:57 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
No specific news out of China, comments that the Strait of Hormuz should be open, just words no details. China said it would buy oil from the US, told US not to mess with Taiwan, increase bilateral trade between the US and China.
Inflation is increasing quickly as the oil price increases are spreading through the economy. April CPI on Tuesday exceeded forecasts, on Wednesday April wholesale prices were much higher than estimates. There is still optimism inflation will subside when oil prices drop; the obvious issue, when will that occur.
Inflation increasing curtails talk about the Fed cutting rates this year and possibly having to increase them to choke off inflation. The 2 year note where Fed tightening is seen is at 4.08% the highest level since March 2025.
There is optimism to also think about, when the price of crude oil begins to decline a lot of the momentary inflation fears will subside. Right now inflation and concerns over the US debt prevail.
April industrial production +0.7% with estimates at +0.2%; capacity utilization 76.1% against estimates of 75.8% and up from 75.7% in March.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.58% +10 bp
5 year note: 4.25% +9 bp
2 year note: 4.09% +6 bp
30 year bond: 5.12% +9 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.81 -41 bp (-60 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.70 -24 bp (-37 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.26 -33 bp (-45 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.69 +0.83 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1626 -$0.0091
Dollar Index: 99.27 +0.46
Gold: $4,532.40 -$152.00
Bitcoin: 79,024 -2409
Crude Oil: $104.20 +$3.03
DJIA: 49,659 -404
NASDAQ: 26,200 -435
S&P 500: 7414 -87
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.