August 20th, 2026 8:46 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The long end of the curve (10s and 30s) declined yesterday when Treasury announced it would double it treasury buybacks beginning September 9th. Markets took it as positive news, the 30 year bond yield fell 9 bps, the 10 year note dropped 7 bps. The optimism faded quickly, this morning the 10 year note began 6 bps higher, the 30 up 6 bps. Secretary of Treasury Bessent wants lower long term debt to help pay the annual debt that has increased to $40 trillion.
Weekly jobless claims this morning were slightly lower than estimates at 206K against 211K consensus, down 6K the prior week. In July claims one week were down to 189K, weekly claims overall have held steady. Continuing claims, a gauge of outstanding unemployment, rose by 18,000 to 1,799,000 in the previous week.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 47.4 in August from 41.4 in July, its highest level since April 2021 and well above expectations of 25. Nearly 57% of surveyed companies reported higher activity, while only 10% recorded declines.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.70% +5 bp
5 year note: 4.39% +5 bp
2 year note: 4.20% +3 bp
30 year bond: 5.24% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.33 -16 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.26 -32 bp (-21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.40 -25 bp (-21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.77 +0.62 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.6800 unch
Dollar Index: 98.78 -0.05
Gold: $4,540.90 -$4.40
Bitcoin: 71,611 +3205
Crude Oil: $88.02 +$2.19
DJIA: 53,106 -367
NASDAQ: 26,179 -152
S&P 500: 7685 -23
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.