July 27th, 2026 11:11 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
After two weeks of daily bombings there is a pause in the mid-east. The US stopped the daily attacks, Iran also stopped attacking ships in the Strait. Over the weekend the Saudis struck Houthis after they attacked a Saudi ship in the Red Sea.
The reaction to the weekend news sent oil prices lower and stock indexes up. Markets continue to knee jerk movements on news from Iran. Reactions this morning precede key news the rest of the week.
This week has a lot to digest. Today June durable goods orders month/month expected +1.7%, reported +0.3% after declining 4.0% in May; ex-transportation orders +0.6% against estimates of +1.0%. Treasury will sell $69B of 2s at 11:30 am ET, $70B of 5s at 1 pm.
Tomorrow the FOMC meeting gets underway, Treasury will sell $44B of 7 year notes. Wednesday afternoon the FOMC policy statement that will be more succinct than previous statements as the Fed is backing away from providing forward guidance. Any volatility from the FOMC will likely come from Fed chair Warsh at his press conference.
Based on expectations, inflation is likely to have ebbed according to the June PCE, the Fed’s preferred measurement that will be reported on Thursday the day after the FOMC. Current forecasts; month/month -0.1% from +0.4%, year/year +3.7% from 4.1%; the core excluding food and energy month/month +0.2% from +0.3%, year/year +3.3% from +3.4%. The better outlook follows June CPI and PPI that were both lower than thought. Also on Thursday, June personal income month/month (+0.3% from +0.7%, personal spending month/month +0.4% from +0.7%).
Tomorrow the Conference Board will release its July consumer confidence index, forecasts 92.3 from 91.2 in June. On Friday, the University of Michigan final June consumer sentiment index, expected at 54.2 from 54.4.
US financial markets continue to react to mid-east news.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.66% -2 bp
5 year note: 4.42% -2 bp
2 year note: 4.33% -1 bp
30 year bond: 5.14% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.27 +15 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.26 +7 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.78 +11 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 163.70 -0.15 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1381 +$0.0010
Dollar Index: 101.40 -0.07
Gold: $4,089.80 +$19.00
Bitcoin: 65,598 +955
Crude Oil: $83.83 -$5.48 (the price at 8:00 am $82.00)
DJIA: 52,419 +471
NASDAQ: 25,078 +103
S&P 500: 7443 +31
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.