November 3rd, 2025 10:55 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning the 10 year note at 8 am ET 4.11% +2 bps, MBS prices down 8 bps from Friday’s close.
The government still shutdown. It is becoming more serious each day, airlines talking about canceling and/or delaying flights with air traffic controllers not coming to work. Many government employees are facing another pay period without a check. The CBO estimating the shutdown will cost the economy $14B.
This is employment week again, if the government remains closed it will be the second month without key employment numbers. Tomorrow September JOLTS job openings expected at 7.30 million up from 7.227 million in August; ADP is expected to report October jobs +28K from -32K. Thursday weekly jobless claims estimates 232K, Q3 preliminary productivity and unit labor costs, productivity estimate +2.7% from +3.3% in Q2, unit labor costs 0.9% from +1.0%. Friday the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October expected at 53.2 from 53.6 two weeks ago.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -21, NASDAQ +205, S&P +26. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.12% +3 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from Friday’s close and -14 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
The October PMI index thought to be at 52.2 reported at 52.5; at 10 am the October ISM manufacturing index estimate was 49.5 from 49.1 in September, reported at 48.7.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.11% +3 bp
5 year note: 3.71% +2 bp
2 year note: 3.60% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.69% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.97 -6 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.24 -2 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.80 -3 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 154.15 +0.14 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1510 -$0.0028
Dollar Index: 99.97 +0.17
Gold: $4,023.00 +$26.50
Bitcoin: 107,588 -2488
Crude Oil: $60.75 -$0.23
DJIA: 47,377 -186
NASDAQ: 23,876 +151
S&P 500: 6846 +6
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.