January 5th, 2026 9:25 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Last week the 10 year note yield increased 3 basis points driven by weekly jobless claims last Thursday that were less that forecasts.
This is a key employment week. ADP scheduled to report its December private jobs on Wednesday. Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will have its big monthly report. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday are expected up 6K from 199K. Continuing claims fell to 1,866 from 1,913 last week. The employment sector hanging in there.
It’s three weeks to the next FOMC meeting (1/29), the consensus now is no cut at the meeting. The economic releases are still unsettled after the shutdown.
At 10 am ET December ISM manufacturing index expected at 48.3% but fell to 47.9%.
If employment holds the outlook for additional cuts lessens. Inflation, the other Fed concern isn’t declining but also hasn’t increased as much as was thought with the tariffs. The benchmark 10 year note remains in its very narrow range with strong support at 4.20%, the note has tested the level six time since early December, each time selling halted although there equally hasn’t been noteworthy improvements.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.18% -1 bp
5 year note: 3.72% -2 bp
2 year note: 3.47% -1 bp
30 year bond: 4.87% unch
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.69% +5 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.43 +5 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.73 +5 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 156.76 -0.07 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1683 -$0.0038
Dollar Index: 98.69 +0.27
Gold: $4,434.70 +$105.40 (safety move)
Bitcoin: 93,265 +1994
Crude Oil: $58.05 +$0.73
DJIA: 48,922 +553
NASDAQ: 23,401 +166
S&P 500: 6898 +40
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.