November 5th, 2025 9:33 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
ADP reported October private jobs this morning was expected to increase 25K, but actually up 42K. September jobs revised from -32K to -29K.
Historically the ADP report precedes the monthly BLS employment release, it’s now been two consecutive months that BLS hasn’t released its NFP jobs. Weekly jobless claims have not been reported for over a month now. The recent estimates for JOLTS job openings released yesterday showed job openings increased 7.300 million from 7.227 million in August.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications declined last week, total applications were down 1.9% after increasing 7.1% the prior week, purchase apps -0.6% from +4.5% and re-finances -2.8% from +9.3%.
The US dollar continues to strengthen, the strongest since last May. The dollar gained support from bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in December, with policymakers signaling a cautious stance toward further easing.
The near-term outlook is mushy given the mountain of unreported data over the last month; traders and investors only have the estimates that aren’t the ‘official’ data.
The shutdown now a record 36 days. Whenever the shutdown ends there will be an avalanche of unreleased data released.
At 10 am October ISM services index was expected at 51.0, but increased to 52.4.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.12% +3 bp
5 year note: 3.73% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.60% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.71% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.02 -4 bp (unch from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.29 -4 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.85 -1 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 153.95 +0.28 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1488 +$0.0005
Dollar Index: 100.23 unch
Gold: $3,992.20 +$30.70
Bitcoin: 102,632 +1943
Crude Oil: $60.09 -$0.69
DJIA: 47,248 +163
NASDAQ: 23,463 +115
S&P 500: 6795 +23
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.