February 2nd, 2026 9:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Bond markets began the day unchanged from Friday. This week is employment week, January ADP private jobs on Wednesday and BLS employment data on Friday. The Senate leaders have agreed on a spending deal to keep the government open, though it still requires approval from the House, which could come as soon as today. The government has been in a partial shutdown since Saturday.
Still a lot of buzz over Powell's replacement Kevin Warsh. Warsh is seen as a supporter of lower interest rates and expected to have a steep hill to climb from Democrats in the Senate.
Three data points today, January ISM manufacturing index (48.5 from 47); January final PMI manufacturing index (51.9 unch from the FLASH release); Tuesday December JOLTS job openings (7.245 million from 7.15 million in November). Wednesday January ADP private jobs (+45K from +41K in December); weekly MBA mortgage applications; January ISM services sector index (53.8 from 54.4 in December). Thursday weekly jobless claims (212K from 209K), continuing claims (1,825K from 1,827K). Friday January employment stats (NFP jobs +67K from 30K), private jobs (80K from 37K), unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%, average hourly earnings month/month +0.3% unch from December, year/year 3.6% down from 3.8% in December. Mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (56.5 from 56.4 in December).
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -131, NASDAQ -88, S&P -18. 10 year 4.25% +1 bp. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -9 bp from Friday’s close; and -10 bp from 9:30 am Friday; the 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from Friday’s close and -3 bp from 9:30 am Friday.
At 10 am the January ISM manufacturing index thought to be 48.5, reported at 52.6.
Bond markets likely to stay relatively unchanged through most of this week with employment data ahead.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.26% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.81% +2 bp
2 year note: 3.56% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.89% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.88 -9 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.37 -3 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.90 -8 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.27 +0.50 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1826 -$.0024
Dollar Index: 97.41 +0.42
Gold: $4,816.00 +$70.90
Bitcoin: 78,489 +1449
Crude Oil: $62.33 -$2.87
DJIA: 49,046 +154
NASDAQ: 23,487 +25
S&P 500: 6947 +8
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.