November 13th, 2025 8:46 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The government shutdown is over. The the government will be funded until the end of January.
October CPI and weekly jobless claims were on the calendar today but won’t be reported, according to comments from Wall Street firms it will take a week or more for the unreleased data to be reported and some data will never be reported due to the inability to calculate the data required, including the October employment report.
Weekly jobless claims estimates today, 230K; over the last six weeks claims estimates have been in a narrow range.
The DJIA opened -90, NASDAQ -154, S&P -31. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.11% +4 bps after dropping 5 bps yesterday, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from yesterday’s close and -7 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
This afternoon Treasury will sell $25B of new 30 year bonds, yesterday the 10 year auction met with very weak demand.
The Treasury is scheduled to report the October Treasury balance, the estimate is -$275B down from a surplus of $197.50B in September.
What will the Fed do at the December meeting? It’s a difficult prediction with FOMC members divided between soft employment and inflation that isn’t declining. Powell has commented more than once that he is tilting more toward the weakening employment situation and a little less on inflation.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.10% +3 bp
5 year note: 3.70% +2 bp
2 year note: 3.60% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.68% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.90 -5 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.15 -2 bp (unch from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.77 -2 bp
Dollar/Yen: 154.46 -0.36 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1630 +$0.0036
Dollar Index: 99.20 -0.29
Gold: $4,221.90 +$5.40
Bitcoin: 101,812 +294
Crude Oil: $59.01 +$0.52
DJIA: 48,118 -137
NASDAQ: 23,167 -239
S&P 500: 6809 -42
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.