CHM Blog

Over overnight the 10 year note fell 3 bps to 4.14% but at 8:30 am ET October durable goods orders, expected at -1.5% fell 2.2%, excluding transportation +0.2%, better than 0.1% estimates. Also, at 8:30 am Q3 2025 was expected at 3.2%, it jumped to +4.3%, Q3 personal consumption expenditures increased 3.5% against estimates of 2.7%. The economy based on GDP much stronger than expected.

The unexpected growth in Q3 is the biggest in two years, its two months late because of the shutdown. Looks like when Q4 GDP data hits the economy will have grown by 2.0%, dissuading the Fed from cutting rates. Economists also think the U.S. could expand 2% in 2026 for the fifth straight year — above the 1.8% growth rate that is considered the long-term norm under ideal conditions. For all the angst over inflation, weakening employment and tariffs that were expected to slow growth the data this morning tossed a wrench into the machinery… for now.

At 10 am the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, expected at 91.9, the index reported at 89.1; November revised from 88.7 to 92.9. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—plummeted by 9.5 points to 116.8 in December. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—held steady at 70.7. The Expectations Index has now tracked under 80 for 11 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was December 16, 2025.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $70B of 5 year notes; yesterday’s 2 year auction met with weak demand.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.20% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.76% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.56% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.86% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.42 -21 bp (-21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.14 -9 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.49 -15 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.44 -061 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1777 +$0.0014

Dollar Index: 98.09 -0.20

Gold: $4,485.30 +$15.80 (prior to GDP +$56.00)

Bitcoin: 87,309 -1003

Crude Oil: $57.95 -$0.06

DJIA: 48,347 -15

NASDAQ: 23,422 -7

S&P 500: 6880 +2

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.