CHM Blog

Over the weekend DOJ opened investigation into Jerome Powell and the Fed over huge cost overruns for the Federal Reserve building renovations. The Fed’s independence back in focus, it stirs up juices of traders and investors, the DJIA in futures trading down 300 points. The Fed is the morning headline, but the more concerning news isn’t the Fed, its the President’s proposal for a one year cut on credit card rates to 10% to help consumers. US bank stocks getting hit hard this morning. This week starts the earnings season with the big banks reporting. Capping credit card rates will shut off credit for those with low credit scores.

Today Treasury will auction $58B of 3 year notes at 1 pm ET and $39B of 10 year notes.

Tomorrow December CPI inflation; overall month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year 2.6% down from 2.7% in November. Core month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year core 2.7% from 2.6%; inflation a slight bit higher. Treasury will auction $22B of 30 year bonds, Treasury will report its monthly statement expected at -$155B but better than November’s -$173.3B. ADP will report its weekly jobs data, estimates are private employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, following an upwardly revised average gain of 17,500 jobs in the previous period.

Wednesday November PPI, month/month +0.3%, year/year +2.7% unchanged from October, month/month core +0.2% from +0.1%; December existing home sales (4.230 mil); Fed beige Book.

Thursday weekly jobless claims (212K from 208K), December retail sales, +0.5% ex-vehicles +0.4%, November import and export prices, imports +0.1% month/month, exports +0.1% month/month.

Friday December industrial production and capacity utilization (production +0.1%, cap utilization 76.0% unch from November. January NAHB housing market index (40 from 39).

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.19% +2 bp (high this morning 4.21%)

5 year note: 3.77% +1 bp

2 year note: 3.55% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.85% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.37 +4 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.52 +1 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.27 +7 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.98 -0.11 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1678 +$0.0043

Dollar Index: 98.85 -0.20

Gold: $4,606.40 +$105.50 (safety move on DOJ of the Federal Reserve)

Bitcoin: 90.846 +271

Crude Oil: $58.84 -$0.34

DJIA: 49,338 -166

NASDAQ: 23,664 -7

S&P 500: 6962 -4

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.