November 20th, 2025 9:06 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The BLS reported its September employment report this morning, although the data remains a mixed bag it is the best markets have now. The Dow Jones estimate was for jobs increasing by 50K, the report showed +119K jobs, up from +4K back in August. The July employment report was revised to -72K from -79K. The unemployment rate thought to be 4.3% reported at 4.4%, average hourly earnings +0.2% with estimates of +0.3%, year/year +3,7% up from +3.8% one year ago.
There will be no October employment report, its limited data will be included with the December employment report that will be released on December 9th (the employment report is normally reported the first Friday of each month which is December 5th). Weekly jobless claims were also released, claims were at 220K for the week last week, down from the prior week by 8K, the forecasts for claims was +227K. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28K to 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.
The household survey used to establish the unemployment rate increased 251K, labor force increased by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million.
The data is old but does show the labor force is still holding well. The FOMC minutes released yesterday show FOMC voters remain divided about a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, today’s data isn’t likely to alter the differences of options. Consensus within markets presently is the Fed will not lower rates at the meeting that begins on December 9th, the day that BLS says it will report the December employment data. If those dates remain the FOMC meeting and market reactions will be quite interesting.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +589, NASDAQ +486, S&P +109; the stock indexes better this morning on strong earnings news yesterday from NVidia. The 10 year note yield at 9:30 am 4.11% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am October existing home sales at 4.19 mil with estimates at 4.090 million.
The better employment data this morning didn’t motivate traders. The bellwether 10 year note continuing in its narrow range.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.11%-2 bp
5 year note: 3.68% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.57% -3 bp
30 year bond: 4.74% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.90 +8 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.21 +9 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.73 +9 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.60 +0.44 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1541 unch
Dollar Index: 100.05 -0.18
Gold: $4,082.40 -$0.40
Bitcoin: 91,088 +1647
Crude Oil: $59.96 +$0.52
DJIA: 46,760 +621
NASDAQ: 23,114 +550
S&P 500: 6764 +122
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.